The New Democratic Way

I'm going to make a prediction to who will become the next President of the United States. That person will be a republican and either will be Rudy Guiliani, Fred Thompson or perhaps John McCain (small chance).

The democrats have already lost. Their road to 2008 already seems done because it's obvious who they are choosing: Hillary Clinton. She now has over 50% of the vote with dems in most polls and is creating enough distance between her and Obama that it's obvious the democratic elite believes their best chance to capture the White House is with Hillary Clinton. Don't mind that half of the democrats distrust her and has major credential issues with her run to win Senate years ago and is the easiest target on the right, the democrats have put their stamp of approval on her.

This is a new dilemma. In previous elections, it was the republicans who would have primaries be semi races before the elite chose who they felt had the best chance and put all stock into that person. Each constituent put whatever grudge against them to the side and supported that candidate in the idea it was greater to have a republican in the White House than a democrat. The problem with the democrats is that they didn't have this order. Constituents were bogged down by issues and each primary would be a major fight to see who could survive all the interests the party had. Party members were less likely to just support who was popular, but the republicans were. This allowed republicans to have sophisticated campaigns because everyone was on board early on for who should win and what was important - before the person was even nominated.

Now the democrat's have essentially done this and the republicans teeter between three candidates who swing back and forth in polls. The party elite prefer Thompson because of his social stances, but he hasn't made the steps yet to overtake Guiliani who's so confident of a victory that he is already focusing on his match with Hillary.

But should he really be concerned with her? I don't think so. She is the most visible candidate out there and leads because of that. She also has raised the most money of anyone. The democrats believe this will be enough, but she is still a polarizing figure. She never has been good with speeches and will likely be reminded of all her past failures. Obama comes from the Senate but has such a bare history in voting that he has little scandal to hide. Hillary has an entire closet full. And in the competition of speeches, there is none. Magazines were writing about Obama's excellence in the area before he even ran for Senate. He was earmarked THAT early for the White House.

I hope I'm wrong. I hope Obama makes a push. I prefer him in politics and in the larger battle of democrats versus republicans. Hillary, I don't think, has a chance. She's too conflicted with scars, but Obama has hope and talent.